Grand Rapids-West Michigan Real Estate Talk Back Blog

Oh You Got To Watch This Trailer
September 2nd, 2010 1:31 PM

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GREEN BUILDING TO BALLOON TO $173.5 BILLION
July 31st, 2010 9:35 AM
The most recent issue of EL Insights reports that the U.S. green building market value will jump from $71.1 billion now to $173 billion by 2015.

Commercial green building is expected to grow by 18.1 percent annually during the same time period, from $35.6 billion to $81.8 billion.

In the report, green building is defined as development with resource use and employee productivity in mind. The high project growth is attributed to a growing recognition of green building's potential cost savings and incentives from the government, like the multi-million dollar Sustainable Communities Challenge Planning Grant program and the Sustainable Communities Regional Planning Grant program.

Green renovation is also expected to be a major part of future green building, largely due to government projects like the Recovery through Retrofit initiative, which offers $80 billion in energy and environmental retrofits for federal buildings.

Green building growth will create many changes in the greater building market, according to EL Insights. For example, construction workers will increasingly pursue green training programs, companies will spend more money on green building technology, and homes with green features will do better on the real estate market. These changes will lead to cost savings for building and home owners, who will benefit from lower energy and heating bills.

Source: Fast Company, Ariel Schwartz (07/10)

Posted by Thomas Markoski on July 31st, 2010 9:35 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Resets to risky mortgages later this year could be a groudhog day
July 17th, 2010 8:46 AM

The Chart below shows the estimated number of mortgages in different categories that are due for an interest rate adjustment, or reset, from 2006 through 2012.

Just as sub-prime mortgages caused so much havoc in 2008 and early 2009 when they were resetting, it will be option adjustable rate mortgages (option ARMs) and Alt-A mortgages (no documentation loans) that cause problems in late 2010 and 2011.

 


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Not The Best Bill- But It Will Be Good For Consumers AND it's a GAME CHANGER For Appraisers
July 16th, 2010 6:14 AM

 


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July 13 2010 H.S. Dent Forcast - If He's Even Close...Watch Out
July 14th, 2010 1:02 PM

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Foreclosure Sales Account for 31 Percent of All Residential Sales in First Quarter
July 5th, 2010 6:55 AM

 

press release

RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its first U.S. Foreclosure Sales Report™, which shows that foreclosure homes accounted for 31 percent of all residential sales in the first quarter of 2010, and that the average sales price of properties that sold while in some stage of foreclosure was nearly 27 percent below the average sales price of properties not in the foreclosure process.

A total of 232,959 U.S. properties in some stage of foreclosure — default, scheduled for auction or bank-owned (REO) — sold to third parties in the first quarter, a decrease of 14 percent from the previous quarter and down 33 percent from the peak during the first quarter of 2009, when sales of foreclosure homes accounted for 37 percent of all residential sales.

“First time homebuyers and investors continue to buy foreclosure properties in large numbers, and at substantial discounts,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “As lenders have begun repossessing homes at record levels over the first half of 2010, it will be interesting to watch how they will manage the inventory levels of distressed properties on the market in order to prevent more dramatic price deterioration.”

The average sales prices on properties in some stage of foreclosure decreased 23 percent from 2006 to 2009 while the average discounts on foreclosure purchases steadily increased from 21 percent in 2006 to 27 percent in the first quarter of 2010. Discounts on REOs are larger than discounts on pre-foreclosures, although discounts on pre-foreclosures appear to be trending higher as short sales become more common.

Foreclosure sales increase 2,500 percent from 2005 to 2009
More than 1.2 million U.S. properties in some stage of foreclosure sold to third parties in 2009, an increase of 25 percent from 2008 and an increase of nearly 327 percent from 2007. Total foreclosure sales in 2009 were up more than 1,100 percent from 2006 and up more than 2,500 percent from 2005. Foreclosure sales accounted for 29 percent of all sales in 2009, up from 23 percent in 2008 and up from 6 percent in 2007.

The average sales price of properties that sold while in some stage of foreclosure in 2009 was 25 percent below the average sales price of properties not in the foreclosure process. That was up from an average discount of 22 percent in 2008 but down from an average discount of 26 percent in 2007. The average foreclosure discount in 2005 was 35 percent, driven by a nearly 50 percent discount on REOs; however, the discount on pre-foreclosures trended up slightly over the same five-year period, from nearly 12 percent in 2005 to 15 percent in 2008 and 2009.

Foreclosure sales by type in first quarter
A total of 144,503 bank-owned (REO) properties sold to third parties in the first quarter, down 13 percent from the previous quarter and down 27 percent from the first quarter of 2009. REO sales accounted for 19 percent of all sales in the first quarter, up from nearly 16 percent in the previous quarter but down from 21 percent of all sales in the first quarter of 2009.  REOs sold for an average discount of 34 percent, up from an average discount of nearly 32 percent in both the previous quarter and the first quarter of 2009.

A total of 88,456 pre-foreclosure properties — in default or scheduled for auction — sold to third parties in the first quarter, down 15 percent from the previous quarter and down nearly 41 percent from the first quarter of 2009. Pre-foreclosure sales accounted for nearly 12 percent of all sales, up from nearly 10 percent in the previous quarter but down from 16 percent in the first quarter of 2009. Pre-foreclosures, which are often short sales, sold for an average discount of nearly 15 percent, up from nearly 14 percent in the previous quarter but down from 16 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

Nevada, California, Arizona post highest percentage of foreclosure sales in Q1
Foreclosure sales accounted for 64 percent of all sales in Nevada in the first quarter, the highest percentage of any state, although Nevada’s percentage was down from 65 percent of all sales in the previous quarter and 75 percent of all sales in the first quarter of 2009.

California posted the second highest percentage, with foreclosure sales accounting for 51 percent of all sales there in the first quarter — up slightly from 50 percent in the previous quarter but down from 70 percent of all sales in the first quarter of 2009.

Foreclosure sales as a percentage of all sales were also down in Arizona from the first quarter of 2009, but the state still posted the third highest percentage in the first quarter, with foreclosure sales accounting for 50 percent of all sales.

Other states where foreclosure sales accounted for at least one-third of all sales were Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Florida, Michigan, Georgia, Illinois, Idaho and Oregon.

Ohio, Kentucky, Illinois post highest foreclosure discounts 
The average sales price of properties that sold while in some stage of foreclosure in the first quarter was 39 percent below the average sales price of properties not in the foreclosure process in Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois — the states with the three highest average foreclosure discounts.

The average overall foreclosure discount was at least 35 percent in California, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, DC and New Jersey.

The biggest discount on bank-owned properties was in New York, where the average sales price for REOs was 52 percent below the average sales price for properties not in foreclosure. The biggest discount on pre-foreclosure properties was in Rhode Island, where the average sales price for properties in default or scheduled for auction was 33 percent below the average sales price for properties not in foreclosure.



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Flopping-Fraud & BPOs
June 22nd, 2010 9:32 AM

On June 10th, Bloomberg.com published a hard-hitting report about “flopping” (which they described as a “…scheme” in which “…investors or home buyers hire brokers to assess a home for less than its market value and convince banks to accept a sale at that level. The buyer conceals from the lender that he has lined up a higher offer and then quickly resells the property for a profit…”. 

Bloomberg quoted Ann Fulmer, vice president of Interthinx (a California company that sells mortgage fraud detection software) as saying that: “Investors often use real estate broker opinions, which may rely on drive-by inspections instead of full appraisals, to persuade lenders to sell at a low price”.  Ms. Fulmer illustrated her point by suggesting an Internet search for “How to influence a broker price opinion”.  The article suggested that this search yielded 74,800 results.  When we made this search on Google, it yielded 54,600 results; however, when we made the search “How to influence a BPO” it yielded 188,000 results!

The Bloomberg.com article noted that the special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), Neil Barofsky, reported to Congress that by allowing BPOs, taxpayers were exposed to $49 billion of government bailouts for housing.  Bloomberg quoted Mr. Barofsky as saying that: “As constituted now, the program permits home valuation, the key vulnerability point for a flopping scheme, without a true appraisal…No program of this type and scale can be considered well designed without robust protection of taxpayer funds against the predation of criminals, particularly given the inconsistent treatment of home valuation.”

The Bloomberg.com article describes a Connecticut case in which two real estate agents pled guilty in a fraudulent scheme and the entire article can be viewed by clicking on the following link:
Banks Face Short-Sale Fraud as Home "Flopping" Spreads

Once again, we at Appraiser Help want to note our support for the positions taken by the four appraisal organizations which authored the March 8th and April 20th letters that we have previously discussed opposing the use of both BPOs and BOVs (Broker Opinions of Value of Commercial Real Estate).  Read the April 20th letter here:
Letter to State Appraiser Board Chairs

We also again request that Andrew Cuomo take one final action as Attorney General, before his coronation as Governor of New York, to read our letter dating back to August 4, 2009 (go to www.EndBPOsNow.com to see) and use the powers at his disposal to help bring an end to these unseemly financial practices.

Content provided by AppraiserNews and the AppraiserNews Logo and all original content ©AppraiserHelp, Inc. 2009-2010



 


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The Best Way To Rob A Bank, Is To Own One
June 20th, 2010 8:01 AM

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Janet Tavakoli & Dave Fry on Financial Reform & Goldman Sachs Lawsuit
June 13th, 2010 2:51 PM

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U.S. Bank Identified CVR as a More Credible and Accurate Valuation Compared to BPOs
June 12th, 2010 7:06 AM

Official US Bank Press Release

U.S. Bank Incorporates New Collateral Valuation Report into Product Pipeline CVR Identified as a More Credible and Accurate Valuation Compared to BPOs

Minneapolis, MN— June 2, 2010—U.S. Bank, the nation’s fifth largest bank, announced today that it will start to incorporate a new statistically supported appraisal, the Collateral Valuation Report (CVR™) as part of its ongoing efforts to use best-of-breed valuation products for its lending solutions.

Forsythe Appraisals, LLC, the largest independent provider of residential real estate appraisals in the United States and Valocity, LLC, a leading nationwide valuations provider, have been selected by U.S. Bank to provide the new CVR appraisal report on a nation-wide basis.

The CVR is an innovative, USPAP-compliant appraisal product that incorporates regression analysis performed by the appraiser to support the value conclusion. The valuation report and software was developed by Bradford Technologies, Inc. headquartered in Silicon Valley, as part of their suite of AppraisalWorld Services for appraisers, appraisal management companies and lenders.

Forsythe Appraisals, Valocity and Bradford Technologies have partnered to provide the CVR as a much more reliable alternative to Broker Price Opinions (BPOs) and Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) which typically require little or no appraiser interaction.

Tony Pistilli, U.S. Bank’s Chief Retail Appraiser for Consumer Banking Risk Management noted that the CVR’s attractiveness to U.S. Bank is its accuracy and reliability. “We believe the CVR will provide a more accurate and more reliable valuation with additional analytical features compared to anything else currently in the marketplace. The value of the CVR is seen as a better way to ensure objectivity and to deliver a valuation with a minimum of valuation bias”.

Tim Forsythe, CEO of Forsythe Appraisals, a veteran appraiser was enthusiastic about broadening his firm’s existing relationship with U.S. Bank. “Obviously we’re thrilled to be working with U.S. Bank to provide products and services that meet a broad range of lending needs. We anticipate it being a real help to them and hope that we can provide the CVR solution for other needs in the future. Valuations based on regression analysis performed by appraisers who are the local market valuation experts is the way all appraisals in the future will be performed. We are enthusiastic about leading the industry alongside U.S. Bank.

Mark Linné, EVP of Education and Analytics at Bradford Technologies, echoed Mr. Forsythe’s sentiments saying, “Transparent statistics will be a part of all appraisals in the future. We are adding science to the art of appraising and we are very pleased that U.S. Bank recognizes the value that statistically supported valuations will bring to their risk analysis and decision making process”.

He continued, “We’re making every effort to educate the marketplace on the CVR and the great value it offers. We are making a difference one lender at a time. We are also currently training and certifying hundreds of appraisers on the use of regression analytics to meet the coming demand.”

For more information on the CVR contact Alan Hummel, SRA, Senior Vice President and Chief Appraiser at Forsythe Appraisals (651-765-9512) or Mark Linné, MAI, SRA, CRE, CAE, ASA, FRICS, Executive Vice President, Education and Analytics at Bradford Technologies (303-995-0899)


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Bankers & Sales Agents - Negative Impact of BPO's 1
June 11th, 2010 6:30 AM

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Bankers & Sales Agents - Negative Impact of BPO's 2 - The BPO TWINS
June 11th, 2010 6:13 AM

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Bankers & Sales Agents - Negative Impact of BPO's 3 - How To Influence A Broker Price Opinion - BPO - Short Sale
June 11th, 2010 6:05 AM

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A Canadian Lakes Real Estate Video
June 9th, 2010 12:29 PM

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Western State Banks & CU's Jumping On The CVR Train
June 5th, 2010 7:14 AM

Banks Are Ordering CVRs In Your Area

Two regional banks and one credit union looking order CVR reports as soon as possible. CVR certified appraisers are needed in the following states – FL, AL, MS, OR, WA, CA.


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Mark Linné CVR EVP Appointed to the Appraisal Practices Board
June 5th, 2010 7:10 AM

Mark Linné Appointed to the Appraisal Practices Board

Trustees of The Appraisal Foundation, a congressionally authorized non-profit organization dedicated to promoting professionalism in appraising through the establishment of appraisal standards and appraiser qualifications, announced Saturday May 22, 2010 the appointment of Mark R. Linné to its newly established Appraisal Practices Board (APB).

In 2009, with the unanimous consent of The Appraisal Foundation Board of Trustees, it was agreed that a new board be established, similar in structure and composition to the already existing independent boards, the Appraiser Qualifications Board (AQB) and the Appraisal Standards Board (ASB). According to the Foundation:

The purpose of this third board is to issue voluntary timely guidance to appraisers on emerging valuation issues that are occurring in the marketplace. This guidance will be of assistance to appraisers, appraiser regulators and educators. The new Board will enlist the help of market surveys to identify issues that need to be addressed and will empanel small groups of volunteer Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to draft the guidance for review and approval by the Board.

The need for this type of guidance was underscored with the onset of the declining real estate market. Many appraisers had not previously faced this type of market condition and the impact of foreclosed properties and short sales. Because a majority of state licensed and certified real estate appraisers do not belong to a professional society, they had limited access to guidance.

Mr. Linné, who is the Executive Vice President of Education and Analytics for AppraisalWorld, Inc, had previously served a representative to The Appraisal Foundation’s Industry Advisory Council (IAC) and served on its Appraisal Form Task Force and Alternative Valuation Task Force. The Appraisal Practices Board is expected to begin meeting in July, 2010.


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Mark Linné CVR EVP Quoted by Reuters
June 5th, 2010 7:09 AM

Mark Linné Quoted by Reuters

Mark Linne was recently quoted in an article published on the Reuters website.  The article talks about the housing demand for this upcoming summer. Here is an excerpt from the article:

The retreat in the U.S. housing market after the government halted its hefty tax credit in April should be short-lived, analysts say, and the market may resume its path to stability...

Read the complete article on Reuters.com


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ZDS and C&D Real Estate Train Their Appraisers to Deliver CVRs
June 5th, 2010 7:08 AM

 

 

ZDS and C&D Real Estate and Review Train Their Appraisers to Deliver CVRs

Two more appraisal companies, Zone Data Systems and C&D Real Estate and Review, have also partnered up with us and will be ordering CVRs from their appraisers. We expect more and more appraisal companies to partner with us in the coming months, so we can soon guarantee nationwide coverage for lenders. Below are the respective press releases from each new partner:

https://www.box.net/shared/dksymyh0gq

See ZDS Press Release

See C&D Press Release


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Major Bank "US Bank" To Begin Ordering CVRs
June 5th, 2010 7:05 AM

US Bank To Order CVRs

For the last few months we have been telling you that a major lender will be ordering the Collateral Valuation Report (CVR), however, we were not at liberty to mention their name, until now. It is now official, US Bank, the 5th largest bank in the United States will be ordering the CVR. This is very exciting news and we are happy to finally announce it! Read the release....


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Distressed Homes Sales and The Market Using REOs for Market Value Appraisals
May 28th, 2010 7:38 AM

Guest Author: Matt Cook, Torrance, CA

A poster to the Inland California appraiser's forum posed an appraisal problem regarding distressed sales.

He stated that the market for a particular residential assignment included 88% "distressed sales of one kind or another" and thought that perhaps by dominating the market, the distressed sales would exert downward value pressure on all the properties in the market.

He was wondering if and how to include these distressed sales in his analysis?

My response was:

If the distressed sales are truly making the market, then two comparable homes--one a distressed sale and one not--should sell for the same amount. Unfortunately, there is not a monolithic "distressed market;" there are vast differences in seller motivation. That is the difficult but essential factor that must be analyzed.

When you separate out the price ranges of the REOs, short sales, and "typical" sales, what do you see? If the REOs and short sales are ALL "distressed" sales (implying below market), you should see that their value ranges will be below the 12% of typical owner sales. On the other hand, if you see that the upper price ranges of the REOs and short sales are similar to the price ranges of the typical sales, that MAY indicate that there are REOs and short sales that are not being affected by poor condition, atypical seller motivations, or fraud, and can be used in support of your analysis and conclusion of market value.

Good news! If the ranges are not similar, this may be the first step in allowing you to derive an adjustment for distressed sales that can be used in your sales comparison analysis. Here are some other suggestions for ferreting out sales from that 88% that can still be used.

REOs: Often, distressed sales--especially REOs--are in poorer condition than typical owner-occupied, owner-sold properties, so they would have lower average sales prices. Sometimes they are also "dumped" at below-market prices. If you can analyze the REO sales and first separate out the ones that were in good or typical condition, then analyze these to separate out the ones that seem to have been sold without undue duress, you may have some REO comparables you can legitimately use.

Some clues that the REO sales MAY be below market are shorter-than-typical marketing times, sales prices above list prices, and out-of-area selling agencies. Short marketing times may indicate a quick sale at a discount price; sales above list price may mean that the listing agent listed the property below market to begin with, and out-of-area listing agencies often handle all of a particular lender's REOs and may not know the local market, or be as available as a local agent to do the marketing, showings, etc. necessary to ensure getting the best possible price.

If you set aside the REO's with those characteristics, after weeding out the ones that were in poor condition, you may be left with a pool of REO sales that have the potential to be market-value sales. Investigate these to be sure; agent interviews are a must here. You may find some REO sales that were in typical condition, sold in normal marketing times by a knowledgeable local agent at a typical discount from list price, verified by both listing and selling agents as being a normally-valued sale. Viola, a comparable sale!

SHORT SALES: Short sales by definition are only short sales because their MARKET VALUE is less than the mortgage balance, so if they are selling at that market value, they should have sales prices similar to otherwise comparable homes. Unfortunately, short sales often involve protracted negotiation and settlement times that can translate into discounted sales prices, as the pool of buyers willing and able to endure the delays is smaller and likely differently motivated than the general pool of buyers. Also, there is a lot of short-sale fraud going on so you have to be very careful.

Start by setting aside the short sales with long times in escrow, or the ones that have been in and out of escrow several times. These conditions MAY reflect unreasonable, unrealistic, or difficult-to-deal-with lenders that will drive "typical" buyers away and result in below-market sales prices. Again, set aside the sales with out-of-area listing agencies for the reasons above. Investigate what you have left, and you may find that some of the sales were sold at market value. A short sale with a reasonable, responsive lender, normal listing history, and an experienced local agent who markets the property correctly can result in a good, market value sale despite its being a short sale.

Finally, take a close look at the "typical" market, the 12% that are not REOs and short sales. If they are priced differently than the 88%, what does it take to get one of them sold? That is, if the "distressed" sales are selling in normal marketing times for their market but the "typical" sales have extended marketing times, or are selling with seller financing, concessions, or other conditions made necessary in order for them to compete with the lower-priced "distressed" sales, then you may want to rethink whether they are truly "market-value" sales.

AUTHOR: Matt Cook, Torrance, CA




Posted by Thomas Markoski on May 28th, 2010 7:38 AMPost a Comment (0)

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